Do Not Go Gentle: Wales’ Political Earthquake and the Fight Against Trans Ideology

What does this new government mean for the advancement of gender identity ideology in Wales?

Welsh politics has seen a huge shakeup in recent weeks. On May 7, the Senedd election produced the biggest upheaval in Welsh politics since devolution began in 1999, ending more than a century of Welsh Labour dominance and ushering in a new era of progressive nationalism. Rhun ap Iorwerth led Plaid Cymru to a historic victory, with the party winning 43 of the Senedd’s 96 seats under the new proportional electoral system. Reform UK surged into second place with 34 seats, while Welsh Labour collapsed to just nine seats. The Conservatives were reduced to seven seats, with the Greens winning two and the Liberal Democrats one.

So, what does this all mean for the status of gender ideology in Wales?

Labour’s Long Legacy

As I’ve written about previously (Wales Watching — Genspect), since Welsh Labour took office in Cardiff Bay in 1999, and especially under First Minister Mark Drakeford’s government from 2018 onward, the Welsh Government has adopted a strongly pro-LGBT and pro-gender-identity policy approach. The clearest expression of this was the 2023 Welsh Government LGBTQ+ Action Plan for Wales, which described an ambition to make Wales “the most LGBTQ+ friendly nation in Europe.” The plan committed the government to “defend and promote the rights and dignity of trans and non-binary people” and embedded gender identity policy across health, education, sport, public services, and data collection.

Key programmes and policies introduced or promoted under Welsh Labour have included:

• Expansion and support for the Welsh Gender Service, including regional satellite clinics and specialist NHS pathways for adults identifying as transgender.
• Support for reform or devolution of the UK Gender Recognition Act, including backing for easier legal gender change and public discussion of self-identification models similar to Scotland’s proposed reforms.
• Commitments to ban “conversion practices” relating to both sexual orientation and gender identity, alongside requests for additional devolved powers if required.
• Integration of LGBTQ+ and gender-identity themes into the new Welsh Relationships and Sexuality Education curriculum, including guidance intended to reflect transgender and non-binary identities.
• Public-sector guidance encouraging trans inclusion in schools, workplaces, healthcare, and sport, together with monitoring frameworks collecting information on sexual orientation and gender identity across Welsh institutions.
• Funding and partnership work with LGBT advocacy organisations including Stonewall Cymru and other equality groups to deliver leadership programmes, awareness campaigns and inclusion training.
• Hate-crime and community-cohesion initiatives explicitly covering hostility based on transgender identity.

The Action Plan also proposed reviewing public-service language and data practices relating to sex and gender identity, improving “trans-inclusive” policies in sport, and gathering more extensive data on gender identity throughout Welsh public services.

Progressive Plaid: the Long March Through the Institutions Continues

In the build-up to the election, an interview on Good Morning Britain showed Rhun ap Iowerth spending a painful few minutes struggling to answer questions about the party’s manifesto commitments on gender self-ID, stating that it was “not central to the election” (Merched Cymru on X ). While he clearly knew this agenda was not a vote-winner for many of the party’s target demographic, Plaid has increasingly leaned in to the young progressives for whom gender identity and trans rights are important issues.

In recent years, Plaid has generally taken a strongly supportive position on transgender inclusion and gender-identity policy, often aligning with Welsh Labour on major LGBT policy initiatives in the Senedd. The party has consistently backed measures intended to expand legal recognition, healthcare access, and public-service inclusion for people identifying as transgender or non-binary.

Plaid supported the Welsh Labour Government’s LGBTQ+ Action Plan for Wales, with the party also backing calls for reform of the UK Gender Recognition Act and supported bans on so-called “conversion practices” relating to both sexual orientation and gender identity. During Senedd debates, Plaid MSs frequently voted with Welsh Labour in favour of motions supporting trans inclusion and echoed Welsh Labour MS’ claims made about division and hostility toward transgender people when these were challenged. Similarly, they frequently ignored concerns raised by the opposition about the impact on women’s rights, education, safeguarding, and health.

Under the 2021–2024 Co-operation Agreement between Plaid and Welsh Labour, Plaid helped sustain and shape several progressive social policy commitments, including work connected to LGBT equality, relationships education, and public-service reform. Although the agreement itself did not focus exclusively on transgender policy, Plaid supported broader equality measures that incorporated gender identity within Welsh Government strategy.

Plaid politicians have also publicly defended the proliferation of transgender frameworks in schools and healthcare. The party has supported continuation and expansion of NHS gender services in Wales under the controversial Welsh Gender Service, and generally endorsed guidance encouraging schools and public bodies to recognise pupils’ preferred names and pronouns. Individual Plaid representatives have criticised what they describe as “culture war” politics around transgender issues, using this term to avoid scrutiny on specific issues.

During the 2026 election campaign, Plaid consistently signalled that if elected, they would continue Wales’ broadly pro-transgender direction. Commitments discussed by the party included:

• Continuing implementation of the LGBTQ+ Action Plan;
• Protecting access to Welsh gender services;
• Strengthening anti-discrimination and hate-crime measures;
• Supporting inclusive relationships and sexuality education in schools;
• Opposing attempts to roll back recognition or inclusion of transgender people in Welsh public services; and
• Pressing Westminster for wider devolved powers over equality and justice issues.

It therefore seems clear that with a majority, Plaid may well have gone further than Labour have in pushing a gender identity framework in many areas. With a minority government now, they are also likely to have the support of the Greens, the Lib Dems, and Labour (where voting to advance Labours previous commitments made while in government) on many of these issues. This only really leaves Reform and a battered Welsh Conservatives to fight back.

Reform’s New Challenge to the Status Quo

Reform UK’s emergence as the second-largest group in the Senedd has the potential to create the strongest parliamentary challenge yet to the pro-gender-identity consensus that had previously existed across much of the Welsh political establishment. Reform Wales now has enough representation to dominate opposition debate, chair committees under proportional allocation rules, and force repeated votes and scrutiny on education, NHS guidance, public-sector equality policies, and the use of gender-identity frameworks within devolved institutions.

During its campaign, Reform Wales positioned itself explicitly against gender identity ideology in public life. The party argued that Welsh Labour and Plaid had embedded gender identity theory throughout schools, healthcare and public administration without sufficient democratic scrutiny. Reform candidates repeatedly called for a return to what they described as “biological reality” in law and policy, particularly in relation to schools, women’s spaces, sport, and official guidance.

Reform’s Senedd campaign and public statements indicated that the party would seek to:

• Reaffirm sex-based definitions in devolved public policy and guidance;
• Oppose self-identification approaches to legal or administrative sex recognition;
• Review Welsh Government relationships and sexuality education materials relating to gender identity;
• Restrict or remove gender-identity teaching for younger children in schools;
• Review NHS Wales gender services, particularly for children and adolescents;
• Strengthen protections for single-sex spaces and women’s sport based on biological sex;
• End public funding for organisations promoting gender-identity activism; and
• Challenge diversity and inclusion policies within the Welsh civil service and local authorities that treat gender identity as overriding sex.

Although many equality and human-rights matters remain reserved to Westminster, Reform’s presence could still affect devolved policy in several important areas. The Senedd controls education, health, local government, sport, and many public-service standards, meaning Reform MSs can pressure the government through committee investigations, amendments, media campaigns, and legislative opposition. They are also likely to use the Senedd as a platform to amplify UK-wide debates over the definition of sex following developments such as the UK Supreme Court’s 2025 ruling affirming that “woman” in the Equality Act refers to biological sex.

However, Reform’s influence will still face practical limits. Plaid Cymru, Labour, the Greens, and most Liberal Democrats continue broadly to support transgender inclusion, meaning there remains a substantial majority in the Senedd for maintaining the overall direction of Welsh Government LGBT policy. Reform may therefore find it easier to slow, scrutinise or politically contest gender identity initiatives than to reverse them outright. Its greatest impact may be cultural and institutional: forcing more open disagreement inside Welsh politics on issues that previously saw relatively little organised opposition within the Senedd itself.

Watch This Space

As we see increasing scrutiny of many of the foundational claims of trans activists, more evidence of harms to mental and physical health caused by affirmative approaches towards gender questioning children, and a clear dwindling of public support for radical gender identity ideology in the UK, we may see the can being kicking further down the road by Plaid and its allies when it comes to implementing the LGBTQ+ Action Plan and related policies. Plaid and friends have talked a progressive talk, but they will be up against vociferous opposition from an energised Reform, a party that will relish the chance to challenge radical politicians on what advancing trans rights really means in practice. Wales will be seen as the test case for the next UK general election, as a truly polarised Senedd may provide a taste of what’s to come in Westminster. While it’s hard to predict the next five minutes in UK politics currently, what we can be sure of is that this issue is not going to go away any time soon in Wales.

Ben Sears is a registered counsellor and former teacher and policy officer based in south Wales, UK.

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